Mandate Validation

Historical evaluation of exposure mandates under observed market conditions

Rules & Assumptions

  • ▸Execution Timing: Signal computed after close of day t, trade executed at close of t+1, return realized t+1 → t+2
  • ▸Trade Price: Next day close (t+1) - conservative, no intraday
  • ▸Fees/Slippage: 0 (stated explicitly)
  • ▸Cash Return: 0%
  • ▸No Parameter Optimization: Same FSM thresholds across all periods
  • ▸Shock Overrides: All mandates go to 0% exposure during detected shocks

Exposure Mandate Simulation

This tool evaluates how different capital mandates would have performed historically. It does not affect the current Market Regime assessment. The FSM regime, shock state, and posture signals remain unchanged regardless of which mandate you select here.

Risk Mandate Under Evaluation

This selection defines allowable exposure behavior. Results reflect mandate constraints, not model optimization.

All policies use the same market phase and shock detection logic. Differences reflect capital governance choices, not signal changes.

There is no universally "best" policy. Each mandate represents a different tradeoff between drawdown tolerance and upside participation.

$

Display only — results scale linearly

Select an exposure mandate and click "Validate Mandate" to begin analysis.